Japan Q1 GDP shrinks 1.3 percent, hit by virus restrictions

TOKYO - Japan's economy contracted 1.3 percent in the three months to March after the government reimposed virus restrictions in major cities as infections surged, data showed Tuesday.

The quarter-on-quarter fall came after the world's third-largest economy grew for two quarters to December, but the expansion was stopped in its tracks by a winter increase in coronavirus cases.

The government imposed new virus states of emergency in January in response, urging people to stay at home and calling for restaurants to close earlier.

The measures slowed consumption, hitting growth despite the relative strength of the manufacturing sector.

The 1.3 percent contraction was largely in line with economist expectations.

"Personal consumption has been particularly hard hit by the Covid-19 emergency measures," Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at SuMi TRUST, said in an analysis issued before the release of the official data.

"On a positive note, private capital investment is expected to continue to pick up as the manufacturing industry as a whole remains strong," Oshikubo said.

Economists warn that the slowdown is likely to continue, with the government forced to impose a third state of emergency in several parts of the country -- including economic engines Tokyo and Osaka -- earlier this month.

The emergency measures are tougher than in the past, and have been extended to the end of May and expanded to several other regions in recent days.

Further complicating the growth picture is Japan's comparatively slow vaccine rollout, said Marcel Thieliant, senior Japan economist at Capital Economics.

"With the medical situation still worsening and the vaccine rollout too slow, it will take until the end of the year for output to return to pre-virus levels," he said in a note.

Agence France-Presse

Stocks move higher on Wall Street, following gains overseas

Stocks headed higher in midday trading on Wall Street Tuesday, adding to the market’s gains from a day earlier, as investors focused on the prospects for an economic recovery as more businesses reopen after being shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The S&P 500 was up 1% and on pace for its third straight monthly gain. The rally follows solid gains in Europe, where indexes marched higher after some encouraging economic data. Bond yields rose slightly, another sign that investors were regaining confidence in the economy.

Technology sector stocks, which led the way higher as the market rebounded the past three months from a 34% plunge, helped power the latest gains. Banks, health care stocks and companies that rely on consumer spending were among the big gainers. Real estate and utilities stocks fell.


Encouraging economic data, including retail sales and hiring, have helped stoke optimism among investors that the reopening of businesses in the U.S. and other countries will pull the economy out of its recession relatively quickly. The market has continued to climb, despite bouts of volatility, even as a rise in new coronvairus cases in the U.S. and other countries clouds the prospects for an economic recovery.

Investors have grown confident that the Federal Reserve and Congress are prepared to continue providing a historic amount of support to the market and economy, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

“All of the negative news has basically been built into share prices,” Stovall said. “If we are to stumble, then the Fed and Congress are likely to step in to put a fiscal and monetary floor underneath the economy and the markets. And now, with the likelihood that the economy will not be shutting down entirely should we end up with a second wave, the market is basically saying it’s ‘onward and upward.’”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 230 points, or 0.9%, to 26,259. The Nasdaq composite, which is heavily weighted with technology stocks, gained 1.4%. The index has only fallen twice so far in June. Small company stocks were also notching solid gains. The Russell 2000 index was up 0.7%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 0.72% from 0.70% late Monday. It tends to move with investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation.

The World Health Organization said over the weekend that the pandemic is still in its ascendancy. The U.S., which is seeing rapid increases in cases across the South and West, has the most infections and deaths by far in the world, with 2.3 million cases and over 120,000 confirmed virus-related deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

Still, investors have been placing more weight on economic data releases that suggest economies that have reopened are making strides to emerge from a deep recession.

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department said sales of new U.S. homes jumped 16.6% in May to an annual rate of 676,000, exceeding Wall Street’s forecasts. Several homebuilders rose. Century Communities was up 1.8%.

Further updates on the U.S. economy are expected toward the end of this week, when the government will issue data on consumer spending, weekly unemployment aid applications and durable goods orders.

European shares advanced after a measure of economic activity in the eurozone, the purchasing managers’ index, rose significantly in June from the month before. The index was just shy of the level that indicates the economy is growing again after a devastating plunge in the spring.

France’s CAC 40 gained 1.4%, while Germany’s DAX rallied 2.1%. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 1.2%.

Asian markets overcame some early turbulence caused by reported comments by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro suggesting the U.S. trade deal with China was in trouble. President Donald Trump later said the agreement was still on.

Benchmark U.S. crude oil was up 0.1% to $40.77 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, was up 0.5% to $43.28 per barrel.

The Associated Press

Psei down in morning trade as investors digest Luzon quake aftermath

MANILA, Philippines — Philippine shares were in the red at the end of the morning trade Tuesday as investors digest the aftermath of a magnitude 6.1 earthquake that struck Luzon on Monday.

As of market recess Tuesday, the bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index was down 0.72% or 55.97 points to 7,776.46. The broader All Shares index was also in the negative territory, down 0.41% or 19.75 points to 4,814.93.

“Investors may remain on the sidelines as they gather more information regarding the aftermath of last night's earthquake. If there's any indication, Philippine iShares were slightly down -0.61% to 34.46,” Luis Limlingan of Regina Capital said in a market commentary.


Authorities say that as of mid-morning on Monday, 11 people have been confirmed dead in the aftermath of the earthquake.

The quake — which was tectonic in origin — hit Castillejos, Zambales at around 5:11 p.m. Monday. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology earlier recorded a magnitude 5.7 quake before revising it to magnitude 6.1.

A total of 447 aftershocks were recorded as of 10 a.m. Tuesday following the tremor that hit Luzon and swayed buildings in Metro Manila.

‘Cautious’

Stocks were generally lower in Asian trade on Tuesday as investors move cautiously ahead of a deluge of corporate results later in the week.

Tokyo stocks were trading down with profit-taking before 10 days of holidays in Japan weighing on the market.

With many markets opening after an extended Easter break, Hong Kong Shanghai, Taiwan, Singapore were all down, while Australia and Seoul were trading up.

"Some of the world's biggest technology companies are reporting earnings this week as well as a raft of the big European banks," Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities Australia, said in a note to clients.

"Investors will be hoping for some better-than-expected results from both groups to keep the topside momentum in global equities, however if the data starts to show a significant slowing across these key industries then expect both stocks and risk trades to start to come under some heavy pressure."

Major earnings releases expected this week include Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil and auto maker Tesla.

Aerospace giant Boeing will report earnings on Wednesday for the first time since a deadly March 10 plane crash plunged the company into crisis-mode. — Ian Nicolas Cigaral with AFP

source: philstar.com

Market may trade sideways this week

MANILA, Philippines — The stock market this week may be characterised by follow through buying on Chinese New Year ahead of the release of the January inflation numbers, according to First Metro Investment Corp. vice president Cristina Ulang.

Ulang said investors would closely monitor the corporate earnings report, noting that outperformance versus estimates would hold the key to sustained foreign buying.

Christopher Mangun, head of Eagle Equities, said that there may be lower trading volumes this week.


“This week is the first trading week of February and with only four days of trading we are going to see lower trading volumes as the holiday is in the middle of week and investors may take a break from trading and take the week off,” he said

Thus, he said the market may continue to trade sideways between 8,000 and 8,200.

“The index may end the week lower, but the key is for it to stay above the 8,000 level. If we continue to see heavy foreign inflows, then the market may sustain its current momentum. Local investors have started taking some risk off the table and currently foreign money is supporting the market. With earnings reports set to start coming in this week on top of better inflation numbers for January, we may see the market factor this is and maintain its current trajectory,” he said.

Last week, the market was pulled up by rosy western equities markets which rose after dovish comments from the US Fed.

The main index ended the week 90.96 points higher or 1.13 percent to close at 8,144.16.

In the first three days of trading, there was a pullback, even touching the 7,900 support level.

However, in the last two trading days there was already  a complete reversal, eventually breaking above 8,100 in the afternoon trading session on Friday, Mangun said.

Foreign money flooded the market with net foreign buying at P5.74 billion.

In all, the PSEi ends the month of January 7.3 percent higher which is the market’s best performance since March 2016.

source: philstar.com

Asian markets surge as Trump fuels China trade deal hopes

HONG KONG — Asian markets enjoyed another rally on Friday after Donald Trump hailed positive talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and a report said he had asked officials to draw up a draft bill as he eyes a potential trade deal between the two.

Hong Kong jumped almost four percent in the afternoon, while Shanghai and the yuan soared as dealers seized on the news, hoping for a breakthrough in a standoff that has rocked global equities and fuelled warnings about global growth.

The gains follow a third straight advance on Wall Street as a sense of optimism returns after a diabolical October, with riskier, higher-yielding currencies enjoying a bounce against the dollar, and the pound holding on to most gains.


The day had already started with a bang after Trump tweeted that he had held positive talks with Xi, which was a rare sign of hope in the months-long stand-off between the world's top two economies.

"Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade," he wrote.


He added that trade talks were "moving along nicely" and meetings were "being scheduled" at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires at the end of the month.

The comment comes days after Trump warned he would impose tariffs on all China's shipments to the US before saying he thought he could "make a great deal with China" but it was not yet ready.

Later, Bloomberg News, citing unnamed sources, reported that the president has requested key cabinet secretaries put together an outline deal to call a ceasefire in the painful row. It said several agencies had been called in to help with putting the plan together.

Hong Kong and Shanghai were already buoyant after Beijing said it would introduce measures to kickstart the stuttering economy following a string of weak data, including growth at its slowest pace in nine years during the third quarter.

The yuan also rallied to 6.9080 to the dollar, having hit 6.9302 earlier in the morning and is well off the 10-year lows around 6.97 on Thursday.

'Still cautious'

The optimism spread across the region. Tokyo was up 2.7 percent in the afternoon, Singapore 1.3 percent and Seoul piled on three percent, while Sydney reversed early losses to sit 0.1 percent higher.

Taipei, Bangkok, Mumbai and Jakarta also posted healthy gains.

"Positive comments from President Trump over US-China trade tension are cheering the market in the short term," said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia Pacific at JP Morgan Asset Management.

"Dollar moderation, the stabilising trade relationship between US and China and more stimulus from Beijing will be the key ingredients to revive market confidence in Asia.

"While we are still cautious over a full resolution of recent tensions in the medium term, resumption of dialogue between Washington and Beijing would be good enough to investors for now."

Oil prices recovered after Thursday's plunge of more than two percent on oversupply worries, with US sanctions on Iran due within days but other major producers ready to pick up the slack.

The commodity has lost around 15 percent from four-year highs at the start of last month as Russia and OPEC said they would bolster output and dealers grew concerned about the impact on demand from a trade war between China and the US.

On currency markets high-yielding units were well bought. The Australian dollar climbed 1.1 percent, South Korea's won strengthened 1.5 percent and the South African rand was 1.6 percent higher.

India's rupee, which has been hammered this week by a standoff between the government and central bank, climbed almost one percent.

The pound dipped but held most of its gains after a report that British Prime Minister Theresa May had reached a post-Brexit deal with Brussels securing access to the EU for Britain's key finance sector.

Sterling jumped almost two percent on the report despite London and Brussels officials' reservations.

source: philstar.com

Asian stocks mixed as investors await US tariff hike

BEIJING — Asian stocks were mixed Tuesday after Wall Street's gains as investors waited for a new U.S. tariff hike in a trade battle with China.

KEEPING SCORE: The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.3 percent to 2,661.33, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 added 1 percent to 22,595.52. Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.3 percent to 26,538.58 and Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 advanced 0.5 percent to 6,171.00. Seoul's Kospi shed 0.3 percent to 2,281.90, while New Zealand. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Southeast Asia declined.

WALL STREET: U.S. stocks broke a four-day losing streak as industrial companies and retailers rose. Technology companies recovered some of last week's losses. Nike, Home Depot and Walmart all climbed. Microsoft and other technology companies rose, but Apple fell after saying more U.S. tariff hikes could push it to raise prices. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 0.2 percent to 2,877.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2 percent to 25,857.07. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.3 percent to 7,924.16.



TRADE TENSIONS: The Trump administration is due to announce a decision shortly on whether to go ahead with 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports in a dispute over Beijing's technology policy. The two sides already have raised duties on $50 billion of each other's goods. Trump said Friday that he was considering extending penalties to extending penalties to nearly all Chinese imports to the United States by raising duties on an additional $267 billion of goods.

ANALYST'S TAKE: "Wall Street balanced the tech gloom against the fresh focus on tax cuts on Monday yielding mixed returns," Jinyi Pan of IG said in a report. "The protracted expectation for more bad news to set in with the looming tariffs remains the most important factor weighing on markets currently."

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude gained 4 cents to $67.58 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 21 cents on Monday to close at $67.54. Brent crude, used to price international oils, advanced 11 cents to $77.48 in London. It rose 54 cents the previous session to $77.37.

CURRENCY: The dollar gained to 111.36 yen from Monday's 111.12 yen. The euro edged down to $1.1590 from $1.1595.

source: philstar.com

Asian stocks mixed as weak dollar weighs on US economic data

SINGAPORE — Asian markets were mixed Thursday as positive sentiment from U.S. economic data and the country's willingness to strike a trade deal with Canada was shaken by a weaker dollar.

KEEPING SCORE: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.2 percent to 22,883.64 and the Kospi in South Korea gained 0.3 percent to 2,316.35. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was 0.4 percent lower at 28,297.41. The Shanghai Composite index fell 0.6 percent to 2,752.13. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3 percent to 6,369.00.



WALL STREET: Gains by big technology companies and Amazon took U.S. indexes higher on Wednesday. Stocks have rallied for four days as investors grew more hopeful about trade talks between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. The S&P 500 index closed 0.6 percent higher at 2,914.04, a record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 percent to 26,124.57 and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1 percent to a record 8,109.69. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks climbed 0.4 percent to 1,734.75.

U.S ECONOMY GROWS: The U.S. economy grew at a strong 4.2 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter, the best showing in nearly four years, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Strength in business investment offset slightly slower consumer spending, placing growth on track to produce the country's strongest full-year gain in more than a decade. Economists expect growth to slow to a still-solid 3 percent annual rate the rest of the year, resulting in full-year growth of 3 percent for 2018.

POSSIBLE TRADE DEAL: President Donald Trump has said that efforts to reach a deal with Canada in the new North American Free Trade Agreement were "probably on track". The longtime U.S. ally and the country's second-largest trading partner after China had been left out of talks for the past five weeks. Canada has until Friday to reach a deal. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there was a "possibility of getting to a good deal for Canada" by Trump's deadline but said the country will not sign a bad agreement. Mexico, long the target of Trump's ire, has cut a preliminary deal with the United States to replace NAFTA with a pact that's meant, among other things, to shift more manufacturing into the United States.


ANALYST'S TAKE: "The positive impulse seen in the U.S. market has not flown through to Asia. Weakness of the dollar has reversed sentiment in the markets overnight," Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said in an interview.

ENERGY: Oil prices have extended their gains on concerns that looming sanctions on Iran may cause supply to drop. Benchmark U.S. crude added 13 cents to $69.64 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract edged 1.4 percent higher and closed Wednesday at $69.51. Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained 12 cents to $77.58 in London.

CURRENCIES: The dollar eased to 111.63 yen from 111.69 yen. The euro advanced to $1.1703 from $1.1699.

source: philstar.com

Dollar slips, yen strengthens on Trump’s Fed criticism

TOKYO – The dollar slipped against the yen and a basket of major peers on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates.

The dollar was also soft as investors pulled out of the safe-haven currency ahead of anticipated talks this week between China and the United States, which some market participants believe might lead to an easing in trade disputes.

“At the moment, markets fear that Trump may have some impact on the Fed’s policy,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“Especially the dollar/yen, which is sensitive to the rate moves of the United States, remains under pressure.”

The yen rose 0.18 percent to 109.87 yen as of 0050 GMT. The dollar on Tuesday fell below the psychologically-significant 110 yen level for the first time since June 28.

The dollar index against a basket of six other currencies fell 0.44 percent to 95.475 as of 0041 GMT after touching as low as 95.440, its lowest level since Aug. 9.

The greenback slipped after Trump said in a Reuters interview on Monday he was “not thrilled” with Powell’s raising of interest rates. Trump nominated Powell last year to replace former Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

The U.S. president spooked investors in July when he criticized the Fed over tightening monetary policy. On Monday he said the Fed should be more accommodating on interest rates.

Mizuho Securities’ Yamamoto said Fed officials don’t seem to be influenced by Trump’s comments.

“As long as the U.S. economy is okay…then I think there is no reason to stop the rate hikes from the Fed’s point of view,” he said.

Trump also said the U.S. central bank should do more to help him to boost the economy while he also accused China and Europe of manipulating their respective currencies.

Escalating trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners and a plunge in the Turkish lira had pushed the dollar index to 96.984 on Aug. 15, its highest since June 2017.

The dollar’s rally halted ahead of anticipated trade talks between Chinese and U.S. officials in Washington. Media reports have said the talks will take place in the next few days.

The euro, which had slipped to a 13-month low early last week amid concerns that the Turkish crisis could hurt European bank, gained on Tuesday. The single currency rose 0.37 percent to $1.1523 as of 0051 GMT.

The offshore Chinese yuan was 0.16 percent stronger at 6.8262 per dollar. The Australian dollar was 0.14 percent higher at $$0.7350.

source: interaksyon.com

Why markets are worried about suddenly cold Turkey

NEW YORK — Why are investors around the world so worried about Turkey's economy, when it's smaller than Florida's? Because of the possibility that somebody bigger will be next.

Investors have been pulling out of Turkey's markets, sending its stock market and currency plunging. That's making debt that Turkish companies owe in dollar terms even more expensive to pay back, which only further weakens the country's financial system.

Turkish companies need to pay close to 5.80 lira for each $1 of debt that they owe, for example, up from 3.79 lira at the start of the year.

The big fear, though, is that the distress could spill over into other emerging markets and cause a cascading wave of losses as investors pull out of other countries that borrow heavily in dollars and are dependent on foreign investors. Argentina? Brazil? South Africa?

Such a thing has happened before. A financial crisis that began in 1997 after Thailand devalued its currency eventually sent markets reeling across the region in what became known as the Asian financial crisis.

Stoking the concerns is the rising US dollar and a Federal Reserve that has pledged to continue raising short-term interest rates. Such moves have historically coincided with pain for emerging market stocks. When US rates are higher, investors feel less need to head to emerging markets in search of higher returns.

Many analysts along Wall Street, though, say they don't expect another Asian financial crisis. Turkey has borrowed much more in foreign currencies than any other country, as a percentage of its economy, and investors question how much authority its central bank has to raise interest rates.

Emerging-market economies broadly are also in much better shape than 20 years ago, with stronger currency reserves, say strategists at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

"Turkey is both more exposed and less able to do something about it than any other country," says Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network.

source: philstar.com

Most Asian markets up but trade fears stalk investors

HONG KONG — Asian markets mostly rose Wednesday, building on a positive start to the week as investors are cheered by healthy earnings but uncertainty caused by the US-China trade row is keeping optimism in check.

Wall Street provided another strong lead with the Nasdaq approaching a record high, while energy firms in Asia pressed on with their rally following more gains in oil prices.

Hong Kong was 0.1 percent higher in early trade while Tokyo ended the morning session 0.4 percent up and Sydney edged 0.3 percent ahead. Seoul, Wellington and Taipei all posted gains but Shanghai dipped 0.6 percent.

While the gains are welcome, traders remain on edge for any new developments in the trade saga between the world's top two economies.

On Tuesday the US said Donald Trump's 25 percent tariffs on a further $16 billion of Chinese goods will kick in on August 23. That is on top of the measures imposed on $34 billion of imports last month.

The move had been widely expected but with China lining up retaliatory measures it reinforced worries that the two sides are heading for an all-out trade war that could hammer the global economy. The White House has also lined up another $200 billion to target in future.

The yuan got some support after a Bloomberg News report said the Chinese central bank had emphasised the need for currency stability to the country's lenders as it looks to halt a slide in recent months.

It said officials called on bosses to prevent "herd behaviour" and momentum-chasing moves in the forex markets, fearing a run on the yuan similar to 2015-16, which hammered the unit and sent global markets into a tailspin.

The report comes after Friday's move by the People's Bank of China to make it harder to bet against the currency.

"This move is consistent with what the PBoC did earlier -- it can be considered as preemptive efforts made to slow the yuan’s depreciation, prevent one-sided bets on weakness and avoid a sense of panic," Eddie Cheung, Asia foreign-exchange strategist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg.

Energy firms remain popular as oil prices rise on the back of worries about the trade row and a drop in Saudi Arabian output.

Both main contracts were flat in Asia after clocking up big gains on Tuesday.

Prices also got support from the US reimposing a first round of sanctions on Tehran after leaving the nuclear deal, with an embargo on the country's crude exports in November.

Trump warned other countries against doing business with Iran in the face of the sanctions, saying they would be refused from trading with the United States.

"The entreaty of the Americans that anyone who will do business with them (Iran) won't be able to do business in the US is something to watch," said Greg McKenna, chief markets strategist at AxiTrader.

Key figures at 0230 GMT

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 22,750.48 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng: UP 0.1 percent at 28,282.28

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.5 percent at 2,764.45

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1602 from $1.1597 at 2130 GMT

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2936 from $1.2938

Dollar/yen: UP at 111.40 yen from 111.37 yen

Oil - West Texas Intermediate: UP five cents at $69.22 per barrel

Oil - Brent Crude: DOWN seven cents at $74.58 per barrel

New York - Dow Jones: UP 0.5 percent at 25,628.91 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 7,718.48 (close)

source: philstar.com

Asian stocks dip as trade tensions weigh on US tech sector

SINGAPORE — Asian markets were mostly lower on Tuesday, as moves by the U.S to gain an upper hand on trade with China weighed on the technology sector. Tech stocks have been the pillar of the Wall Street's long-running bull market.

KEEPING SCORE: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.5 percent to 22,221.33 and South Korea's Kospi lost 0.9 percent to 2,337.60. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.2 percent to 28,619.21 and the Shanghai Composite in mainland China slipped 0.6 percent to 2,842.22. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.4 percent to 6,186.40. Taiwan's benchmark fell and Southeast Asian indexes were mostly lower.

WALL STREET: Major U.S. benchmarks finished broadly lower. The S&P 500 index dropped 1.4 percent to 2,717.07, its worst loss since April 6. The Dow Jones industrial average fell for the ninth time in 10 days, losing 1.3 percent to 24,252.80. The Nasdaq composite shed 2.1 percent to 7,532.01. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks slid 1.7 percent to 1,657.51.


TECH DOWNTURN: Stocks tumbled on reports that the Trump administration plans to limit exports of some high-tech products to China, and also limit investment in technology firms by companies with substantial Chinese ownership. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's suggestion that the investment restrictions wouldn't be limited to China caused stocks to slide further. The market recovered when Peter Navarro, one of President Donald Trump's top trade advisors, told CNBC that there was no plan for investment restrictions and that the administration's probe into alleged technology theft is limited to China. All but one of the 72 technology companies listed on the S&P 500 index closed lower on Monday.

TRADE TENSIONS: U.S. efforts to secure a pole position in trade are seeing some hit back. Iconic American motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson said it would move some production overseas to avoid tariffs the European Union is placing on motorcycles made in the U.S. Those tariffs were a response to taxes the U.S. placed on steel and aluminum from Europe. In less than two weeks, a 25 percent tariff will be imposed by the U.S. on billions of dollars of Chinese products. China will also raise import duties on $34 billion worth of American goods. China and the European Union agreed on Monday to launch a group that will, among other things, preserve support for international trade amid U.S. threats of import controls.

ANALYST'S TAKE: "Fears that China may pull investments in U.S. tech firms have caused a broad drawback. There is a sense that trade tensions could be long drawn and somewhat more antagonistic going forward," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and macro strategy at Mizuho Bank.
ENERGY: OPEC countries have agreed to raise the supply of crude oil by 1 million barrels a day. But investors aren't sure if the cartel will carry it out. Benchmark U.S. crude gained 7 cents to $68.15 per barrel in New York. It dipped 0.7 percent to settle at $68.08 per barrel on Monday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, rose 5 cents to $74.60 per barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The dollar remained at 109.45 yen from late trading Monday. The euro strengthened to $1.1718 from $1.1704.

source: philstar.com

Asian stocks take a breather from trade tensions; markets up

SINGAPORE — Asian markets were mostly higher on Wednesday as traders sidelined tariffs that the U.S. and China have threatened to impose on one another, focusing on positive housing data instead.

KEEPING SCORE: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 1.2 percent to 22,540.07 and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.4 percent to 2,373.50. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rebounded 1.5 percent to 29,908.50 and the Shanghai Composite in mainland China increased 0.4 percent to 2,918.60. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.1 percent to 6,166.40. Taiwan's benchmark rose but Southeast Asian indexes were mixed.

U.S-CHINA TARIFFS: A burgeoning trade war between the U.S. and China is showing no signs of abating. On Tuesday, China's government called President Donald Trump's threat of new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods "blackmail" and warned to retaliate with measures of its own. Trump has already announced a 25 percent tariff on up to $50 billion of Chinese products starting July 6. China retaliated by raising import duties on $34 billion worth of American goods, including soybeans, electric cars and whiskey.


POSITIVE HOUSING DATA: The solid U.S. job market has helped to boost demand for new homes. The Commerce Department said housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million in May, the strongest pace since July 2007. All of May's construction gains came from a 62 percent jump in the Midwest, while building slumped in the Northeast, South and West.


QUOTEWORTHY: "Trade tension is going to dominate market sentiment in the weeks to come. The market is waiting for Beijing to come out with counter measurements to offload more chips," said Margaret Yang, market analyst at CMC Markets Singapore.

WALL STREET: Major U.S. benchmarks finished lower. The S&P 500 index dropped 0.4 percent to 2,762.57 and the Dow Jones industrial average lost 1.1 percent to 24,700.21. The Nasdaq composite dipped 0.3 percent to 7,725.59.

ENERGY: Oil futures recovered losses from the previous day ahead of an OPEC meeting on Friday. Saudi Arabia and Russia are seeking to raise production by 1.5 million barrels per day, but they may not get their way. Benchmark U.S. crude rose 38 cents to $65.28 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract settled at $64.90 per barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained 32 cents to $75.40 in London.
CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 110.19 yen from 110.07 yen in late trading Tuesday. The euro ticked up to $1.1579 from $1.1575.

source: philstar.com

Asian stocks tumble after new Trump tariff threat

BEIJING — Asian stocks tumbled Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump escalated a dispute with Beijing over technology policy by threatening a tariff hike on additional Chinese goods.

KEEPING SCORE: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3 percent to 2,953.54 points and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 2 percent to 29,685.28. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 retreated 0.9 percent to 22,482.89 and Seoul's Kospi lost 0.8 percent to 2,356.57. Markets in Taiwan, New Zealand and Southeast Asia also declined. Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 gained 0.3 percent to 6,123.00.

TRADE TENSIONS: Trump directed the U.S. Trade Representative to prepare new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports, stepping up a dispute companies and investors worry could drag down global trade and economic growth. Trump accused Beijing of being unwilling to resolve the dispute over complaints it steals or pressures foreign companies to hand over technology. China's Commerce Ministry criticized the White House action as blackmail and said Beijing was ready to retaliate.

ANALYST'S TAKE: "President Donald Trump's unwillingness to back down became apparent this morning, once again sinking markets into a risk-off atmosphere," said Jingyi Pan of IG in a report. "Attention now turns to China for the country's response towards the latest accusations from the White House, but mostly signs of further retaliation."


WALL STREET: U.S. stocks finished mixed in trading that ended before Trump issued his latest tariff threat. Household goods companies took some of the worst losses as the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell for the third time in four days. The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent to 2,773.75. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 0.4 percent to 24,987.47. The Nasdaq composite edged up 0.65 points to 7,747.03. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks rose 0.5 percent to a record 1,692.46. Many investors feel smaller and more U.S.-focused companies are less vulnerable in the event of a major trade dispute.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude lost 26 cents to $65.59 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 79 cents on Monday to $65.85. Brent crude, used to price international oils, fell 41 cents to $74.93 per barrel in London. The contract rose $1.90 the previous session to $75.34.

CURRENCY: The dollar declined to 109.98 yen from Monday's 110.54 yen. The euro edged up to $1.1633 from $1.1623.

source: philstar.com

CRYPTO CURRENCY | Hotly anticipated bitcoin futures surge on debut

NEW YORK/SYDNEY — Bitcoin futures jumped more than 20 percent in their eagerly anticipated U.S. debut, which backers hope will encourage wider use and legitimacy for the world’s largest cryptocurrency even as critics warn of the risk of a bubble and price collapse.

The launch on Sunday night may have caused an early outage of the Chicago-based CBOE Global Markets’ website. The exchange said that due to heavy traffic on the CBOE Global Markets website, the site “may be temporarily unavailable.”

The one-month bitcoin contract <0#XBT:> opened trade at 6 pm (6.00 p.m. ET) at $15,460, dipped briefly and then rose to a high of $18,700.

As of 0430 GMT, it was up 16 percent from the open at $17,940, with 2,211 contracts traded.

On the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp BTC=BTSP, bitcoin prices surged 7 percent to $15,720. It is up more than 1,400 percent so far in 2017, and its gains in the past month have been rapid.


Experts had worried that the risks associated with the currency’s Wild West-like nature could overshadow the futures debut, but so far the price action has been unlike the wild swings seen in the past few weeks. Bitcoin tumbled 20 percent in 10 hours on Friday.

“Even if there is an institution or institutional-sized trader out there, they are going to want to make sure that the mechanics work first, just for the futures,” said Ophir Gottlieb, chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based Capital Market Laboratories.

“I think the excitement will come when the futures market is established. That can take a few days,” Gottlieb added.

The futures are cash-settled contracts based on the auction price of bitcoin in U.S. dollars on the Gemini Exchange, which is owned and operated by virtual currency entrepreneurs and brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

Market participants said the launch of the futures contract wouldn’t necessarily reduce volatility in the cryptocurrency.

“There are no ways to arbitrage between the market and other exchanges, CBOE cannot settle Bitcoin as far as I know,” said Leonhard Weese, president of the Bitcoin Association of Hong Kong.

“Regular bitcoin traders don’t have access to it, and the trading desks that use the futures market don’t have access to bitcoin.”

Cryptic currency

While bitcoin’s price rise mystifies many, its origins have been the subject of much speculation.

It was set up in 2008 by someone or some group calling themselves Satoshi Nakamoto, and was the first digital currency to successfully use cryptography to keep transactions secure and hidden, making traditional financial regulation difficult if not impossible.

Central bankers and critics of the cryptocurrency have been ringing the alarm bells over the surge in the price and other risks such as whether the opaque market can be used for money laundering.

“It looks remarkably like a bubble forming to me,” the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Acting Governor Grant Spencer said on a television program run on Sunday.

“We’ve seen them in the past. Over the centuries we’ve seen bubbles and this appears to be a bit of a classic case,” he said.

Many investors have stood on the sidelines watching its price rocket. However, it is possible to buy bitcoin without having to spend the full price of one coin. Bitcoin’s smallest unit is a Satoshi, named after the elusive creator of the cryptocurrency.

Somebody who invested $1,000 in bitcoin at the start of 2013 and had never sold any of it would now be sitting on around $1.2 million.

Heightened excitement ahead of the launch of the futures has given an extra kick to the cryptocurrency’s scorching run this year.

Controversial move

Bitcoin fans appear excited about the prospect of an exchange-listed and regulated product and the ability to bet on its price swings without having to sign up for a digital wallet.

Others, however, caution that risks remain for investors and possibly even the clearing organizations underpinning the trades.

“You are going to open up the market to a whole lot of people who aren’t currently in bitcoin,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

The launch has so far received a mixed reception from big U.S. banks and brokerages, though.

Several online brokerages, including Charles Schwab Corp and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD.O), did not allow trading of the new futures immediately.

The Financial Times reported on Friday that JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc would not immediately clear bitcoin trades for clients.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc said on Thursday it was planning to clear such trades for certain clients.

Bitcoin’s manic run-up this year has boosted volatility far in excess of other asset classes. The futures trading may help dampen some of the sharp moves, analysts said.

“Hypothetically, volatility over the long run should drop after institutions get involved,” Gottlieb said. “But there may not be an immediate impact, say in the first month.”

source: interaksyon.com

After roads and railways, China’s Silk Road dealmakers eye financial firms

HONG KONG – After ports and industrial parks, the dealmakers leading China’s trillion-dollar push to build a modern Silk Road are turning to the financial sector, targeting Europe’s banks, insurers and asset managers to tap funds and expertise.

Last week, sources familiar with the matter said two of China’s most acquisitive conglomerates, HNA Group and Anbang Insurance Group, had separately considered bidding for the German insurer Allianz SE.

Neither of the two made an offer, but the talks marked a new level of ambition for China: Allianz is a German stalwart, a pillar for local pensions and a global powerhouse with 1.9 trillion euros ($2.3 trillion) of assets under management.

HNA already owns a stake of just under 10 percent in Deutsche Bank.

Bankers, lawyers and company executives say more financial deals will come, led by state behemoths such as China Life and China Everbright, as well as private firms including Legend Holdings and China Minsheng Financial.

“The message from the regulators is clear – they want these companies to go out and get access to large amount of funds and expertise,” said a financial M&A adviser at a global bank, who works with Chinese regulators and companies.

“They would look very favorably at transactions that have some links to the Belt and Road program, because the country needs to boost its financial muscle,” the banker said. But Beijing “will ensure the excesses of the past couple of years do not happen again.”

The banker, who declined to be named as he was not allowed to speak to the media, said his firm was currently working on several “mid-sized to large” foreign financial takeover deals.

After a deal spree that saw Chinese conglomerates spend billions on everything from landmark property to soccer clubs in a debt-fuelled M&A drive over the past two years, Beijing has sought to rein in some of the excesses.

But Belt and Road deals have been an exception in the crackdown this year – including, most recently, financial deals.China’s outbound M&A volume targeting financials has reached nearly $9 billion as of last week this year, not far from $12 billion in all of 2016, according to Thomson Reuters data. If exceeded, it would be the second best year for such deals since at least the global financial crisis in 2008.

The share of financial transactions in overall outbound deal volume has also risen to 8.2 percent this year, higher than 5.7 percent in the same period last year, while industrial deals, typically the biggest sector for outbound M&A, fell by a third.

EXPANDING FOOTPRINT

Earlier this month, Legend – the top shareholder in the computer maker Lenovo – agreed to buy a 90 percent stake in Banque Internationale a Luxembourg (BIL) for $1.8 billion.

The deal, Legend said, was linked to the Belt and Road initiative, President Xi Jinping’s policy of building a modern Silk Road to expand global trade and influence.

“Our overseas investments will continue to focus on the opportunities that are provided by the Belt and Road national policy,” the company said, in a statement to Reuters, adding it would “actively invest” in other areas of financial services, including insurance, securities and financial technology.

It gave no details, but bankers said Legend has been eyeing banks and insurers in Southeast Asia, Europe and Hong Kong, using its healthy balance sheet and the halo effect of Belt and Road-linked initiatives.

Better financial expertise and depth will help China secure contract guarantees, financing and better insurance.

“We need those overseas financing institutions – buying them can expand our bank assets and boost foreign firms’ participation in our projects abroad,” said Huo Jianguo, vice-chairman of the China Society for WTO Studies, under the Ministry of Commerce.

“China is having a hard time attracting international institutions to get involved” in Belt and Road projects, Huo said. “If that persists it will become an one-man show, which is not sustainable.”

Besides Legend, others eyeing the sector include the insurer China Life, China Minsheng Financial, China Everbright Ltd,part of the state-owned China Everbright Group, and Haitong International Securities.

They are mainly scouting for investment and acquisition targets in Europe and Asia, said bankers and lawyers.

WATCHDOGS

Chinese companies will not be expanding into the financial services sector at will, of course. Acquisitions of stakes in foreign banks – never mind full ownership – are already closely monitored by overseas regulators.

But while banks may be tough targets, bankers and executives say Chinese institutions and conglomerates could instead target asset management, insurance or wealth managers.

China Everbright plans to allocate $1.5 billion of its 2017 spending to the purchase of a fund manager, private bank or insurer overseas to help it raise cash more easily and extend its presence abroad.

China Merchants Bank has been “actively looking” for wealth management firms in Europe, said one person familiar with the matter, adding that not all financial acquisitions in the near term may have clear Belt and Road links.

China Minsheng Financial declined to comment on its plans, while Haitong International said it does not “have any plans at the moment”. China Life, Legend and China Merchants Bank did not respond to requests for comment.

“Finance is definitely an encouraged sector under the recent Chinese outbound investment guideline,” said Christina Lee, a partner at the law firm Baker McKenzie’s capital markets practice in Hong Kong.

“PRC financial institutions are mostly domestically focused,” Lee said. “M&A is a fast way to gain exposure and expertise in the international finance scene.”

source: interaksyon.com

‘Miners’ back new bitcoin software upgrade, averts split

NEW YORK — Digital currency bitcoin on Friday averted a split into two currencies after its network supported an upgrade to its software that would enhance its ability to process an increasing number of transactions.

Bitcoin’s miners have signaled their support for the so-called Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 91, avoiding a split of bitcoin into two blockchains. The miners represent a network of computer operators who secure the blockchain or a public ledger of all bitcoin transactions

BIP 91 is the first step toward a larger effort to upgrade bitcoin through a software called SegWit2x. On Friday, the support for BIP 91 reached nearly 100 percent, exceeding the required threshold of 80 percent, according to analysts and market participants.

Some investors have warmed to bitcoin, wooed by its explosive performance and potential to compete with gold and government-issued money as a means to store value. Demand for bitcoin has grown in eight years to a market capitalization of more than $40 billion.

But fears about the bitcoin split dampened demand for bitcoin in recent weeks. After hitting record high near $3,000, bitcoin dropped as low $1,830 BTC=BTSP on the Bitstamp platform. On Friday, it traded at $2,647.

The software upgrade attempts to address the bitcoin network’s limitations in processing millions of daily transactions. Bitcoin’s network has not kept pace with its growth and is unable to process all the transactions fast enough.

“BIP 91 unleashes the next wave of innovation because it has been a little bit stagnant of late for bitcoin,” said Rob Viglione, co-founder of ZenCash, a digital coin focused on privacy and security.

Before BIP 91’s endorsement, some bitcoin investors feared it could split into two independent currencies because core developers of the network and the miners each wanted different ways to increase bitcoin’s scale.

A compromise between the two groups has been reached through SegWit2x.

“Bitcoin now has a clear run to add features that allow for faster transactions with lower costs,” said Charles Hayter, chief executive officer of digital currency analytics firm Cryptocompare.

The upgrade to bitcoin’s network will not occur until autumn, said Viglione, because several things need to happen before the new software is activated.

Market participants have complained about the delay in transactions. Analysts say a single bitcoin transaction costs on average 83 U.S. cents to execute, which means micropayments are not feasible on the network.

The network is also limited to roughly seven transactions per second. In comparison, Visa on average handles 2,000 transactions per second.

source: interaksyon.com

Malaysia, Indonesia markets roiled as investors scramble for hedge on Trump

JAKARTA -- Emerging markets in Southeast Asia were slammed on Friday as the stunning upset of Donald Trump's presidential win in the United States reverberated around the world, with Malaysia and Indonesian central banks intervening to try to stem the flow of money out of stocks and bonds.

The latest selloff was triggered by markets recalibrating their expectations of a Trump presidency on broad economic policy, with a growing consensus that his policies will be inflationary and push US rates up driving investors out of emerging markets and into dollar-based assets.

Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries have spiked 41 basis points in the past two days as investors scrambled to readjust their positions.

Emerging markets in Asia are particularly vulnerable to hot money outflows, and deep uncertainty over how broad US and international policy will ultimately play out under Trump has unsettled investors.

On Friday's Asian session, the differential between the onshore spot rate in the Malaysian ringgit and the offshore NDF rate spread hit its widest since 2009.

Ringgit one-month non-deliverable forwards plunged to 4.5280 per dollar, while spot ringgit stood at 4.2670. As a result, the dollar/ringgit's NDFs premium over the dollar/ringgit spot widened to 0.2610, the widest since at least April 2008, according to Reuters data.

The subdued spot rate belied the drama because Bank Negara Malaysia was acting to stem any panic, traders said.

Malaysia's central bank governor Muhammad Ibrahim told reporters on Friday the ringgit should not be priced out of sync with fundamentals, and that it has a responsibility to tell banks to take temporary measures to calm the market

"We don't want to be dictated by factors that have nothing to do with the country's fundamentals," Ibrahim said.

Traders in Kuala Lumpur said the central bank had told them not to quote offshore rates and was approving large ringgits sell orders on a one-off basis in a bid to keep a lid on things. The tactic seemed to work with onshore trade reportedly very thin.

Hot money headache

However, yields on Malaysian government bonds told another story. Yields on 10-years have widened 22 basis points since Wednesday, while those on 20-year and 30 year bonds have widened 21 basis points and 10 basis points respectively over the same period.

Almost 40 percent of Malaysian government bonds are in foreign hands.

Malaysian stocks were down almost one percent.

Indonesian markets also dived in early trade. Indonesia has enjoyed relatively high inflows into stocks and bonds markets in the past few months, making it vulnerable to hot money outflows at times of uncertainty.

The rupiah  fell as much as 2.7 percent, while Jakarta Composite Index fell as much as 3.2 percent to its lowest since Sept 16.

Bank Indonesia sold dollars to stabilize the currency, traders said, but it still fell to a four-month low.

Nanang Hendarsah, an official at BI, said the rupiah's sharp drop was caused by sudden hedging activity in the NDF market, but noted outflows from Indonesian markets were contained so far.

Yield of Indonesia's 10-year government bonds jumped on Friday to 7.462 percent from 7.417 percent. Foreigners own 38.4 percent of outstanding Indonesian government bonds.

Philippine stocks were also caught in the selloff with the main index tumbling more than 2.5 percent. The Philippines peso, however, was steady at 48.99.

The short term might prove a head-spinning affair for investors, especially for those in emerging markets.

"With the market now pricing in low expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate hikes beyond the one expected in December, Mr. Trump’s economic policies present an upside risk to rates," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

"This, coupled with the depreciation pressure on Asian currencies, has put serious pressure on Asia’s carry trades."

source: interaksyon.com

Paris vies to overtake London as finance hub post-Brexit

PARIS - British Prime Minister David Cameron once gleefully offered to "roll out the red carpet" for French executives wanting to escape staggering wealth taxes.

Now, with London's red carpet fraying after the Brexit vote to leave the European Union, Paris is stepping in to welcome bankers, investors and businesses who may want to escape the uncertainty hanging over the City's role as a global finance hub.

"In this new environment which is taking shape, we want France to be attractive," Prime Minister Manuel Valls said Wednesday.

As competition grows among Europe's capitals to benefit from the financial fallout of Brexit, Valls unveiled a series of measures to boost the allure of Paris.

Notably, he confirmed plans to cut France's corporate tax rate to 28 percent from 33 percent, a move previously announced by President Francois Hollande.

Britain's vote to leave the European Union "created shockwaves, for all European citizens but also, in a very concrete manner, many businesses settled in the United Kingdom," Valls said.

Valls said he wanted to improve the tax and legal framework to "welcome even more companies (and) make Paris the capital of smart finance."

The prime minister announced a tweak to a system allowing foreign employees to benefit from tax reductions, making it applicable for eight years instead of five.

Beyond these fiscal measures, the government also plans to put in place a "single entry point" to facilitate administrative matters for foreign companies seeking to set up shop in France -- where red tape can be a nightmare to navigate.

This service will help companies with questions about real estate, residency permits, schools and other issues.

Valls said France would open "as many international sections as needed in schools" to allow children of foreign employees to be taught in their mother tongue.

The Brexit vote has several European capitals clamoring to take London's spot as a major finance center, such as Frankfurt, Luxembourg and Dublin.

France is traditionally perceived as "anti-business", with its inflexible and hard-to-understand labor code.

According to the World Bank's 2016 "Ease of Doing Business" report, France ranks 27th out of 189 countries, while Britain comes in sixth.

'Supertax'

The Socialist government came into power in 2012 promising as 75 percent "supertax" on top earners -- which sent the rich fleeing -- and became another symbol of France's opposition to big business.

However the measure was slowly watered down and quietly dropped in 2015, as it failed to do much to boost a stagnating economy.

Hollande has since steered his government on a wildly different path to stimulate the economy, with a series of economic and labour reforms that have enraged the left flank of his party, which now accuses him of being too pro-business.

As an indication of how difficult the reforms have been, Valls had to force both sets of reforms through parliament without a vote using a special constitutional measure.

source: interaksyon.com

EU leaders tell Britain to exit swiftly, market rout halts

LONDON/BRUSSELS - European leaders told Britain on Tuesday to act quickly to resolve the political and economic chaos unleashed by its vote to leave the European Union, a move the IMF said could put pressure on global growth.

Financial markets recovered slightly after the result of Thursday's referendum wiped a record $3 trillion off global shares and sterling fell to its lowest level in 31 years, but trading was volatile and policymakers said they would take all necessary measures to protect their economies.

British Finance Minister George Osborne, whose attempt to calm markets had fallen on deaf ears on Monday, said the country would have to cut spending and raise taxes to stabilize the economy after a third credit ratings agency downgraded its debt.

Firms have announced hiring freezes and possible job cuts, despite voters' hopes the economy would thrive outside the EU.

European countries are concerned about the impact of the uncertainty created by Britain's vote to leave on the 27 other EU member states. There is little idea of when, or even if, the country will formally declare it is quitting.

"The process for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union must start as soon as possible," French President Francois Hollande said. "I can't imagine any British government would not respect the choice of its own people."

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker sent a similar message as he prepared for talks with British Prime Minister David Cameron before an EU summit in Brussels, although he did not anticipate an immediate move.

"We cannot be embroiled in lasting uncertainty," Juncker said in a speech to the European Parliament, which he interrupted to ask British members of the assembly who campaigned to leave the EU why they were there.

Cameron, who called the referendum and tendered his resignation when it became clear he had failed to persuade Britain to stay in the EU, says he will leave it to his successor to formally declare the country's exit.

Arriving for the EU summit, he said: "I'll be explaining that Britain will be leaving the European Union but I want that process to be as constructive as possible, and I hope the outcome can be as constructive as possible.

Holding out hope of maintaining good relations with other European countries, he said Britain wanted "the closest possible relationship in terms of trade and cooperation and security. Because that is good for us and that is good for them."

His party says it aims to choose a new leader by early September. But those who campaigned for Britain's leave vote have made clear they hope to negotiate a new deal for the country with the EU before triggering the formal exit process. European leaders have said that is not an option.

"No notification, no negotiation," Juncker said.

No cherry-picking

After Cameron has addressed EU leaders on Tuesday evening, they will meet the next day to discuss Brexit without him.

Leave campaigners in Britain including Boris Johnson, a likely contender to replace Cameron, suggest the country can retain access to the European single market and curb immigration -- but those goals are mutually incompatible under EU rules.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Britain would not be able to "cherry-pick" parts of the EU, such as access to the single market, without accepting principles such as freedom of movement when it negotiates its exit from the bloc.

"I can only advise our British friends not to fool themselves ... in terms of the necessary decisions that need to be made in Britain," she told German parliament in Berlin.

Cameron will meet other European counterparts one-on-one before addressing them all at what promises to be a frosty dinner to discuss what has become known as Brexit.

EU lawmakers say they want him to trigger the exit process at the dinner, but an EU official said that was unrealistic given the political chaos in London, where both Cameron's party and opposition Labour lawmakers are deeply divided.

The ruling Conservative Party is split into pro- and anti-EU camps and Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn was facing a no confidence vote on Tuesday from parliamentarians who accuse him of lukewarm support for the EU.

The European Parliament jeered when Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain's euroskeptic UKIP party, said in a scathing speech that Europe had deceived its population and Britain would be its "best friend" if it agreed to extend a tariff-free trade deal.

But the vote has caused new friction in the EU at a time of crises over a mass influx of refugees, economic weakness and tensions on its borders with Russia.

Poland's foreign minister demanded Juncker and other leaders of the executive European Commission quit for not preserving the Union. The prime minister of Greece, enduring austerity measures in return for aid, said Europe must change direction.

Germany's financial market regulator delivered a double blow to London, saying it could not host the headquarters of a planned European stock exchange giant after Britain leaves the EU, and could not remain a center for trading in euros.

Fitch joined other credit ratings agencies in downgrading its sovereign debt on Monday, and Osborne said Britain faces tax rises and spending cuts.

"We are going to have to show the country and the world that the government can live within its means," Osborne, who campaigned to stay in the EU, told BBC radio.

Mayor seeks more autonomy for London

The 52-48 percent vote to leave has deepened multiple geographical as well as political and social divisions in the United Kingdom.

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, where a majority voted to stay and people fear job losses if the city loses its status as a global financial center, said access to Europe's market was key. "On behalf of all Londoners, I am demanding more autonomy for the capital - right now," he said.

Scotland, where people voted strongly to remain in Europe, is weighing a possible second referendum on leaving the United Kingdom given the vote to leave the EU.

Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon denounced what she called a vacuum of leadership in London and said three months of political drift until a successor to Cameron is in place would further damage Britain's economy. She said she would meet EU leaders on Wednesday to discuss how Scotland could remain.

The impact looked likely to spread far beyond Britain's borders although European shares rose after a heavy sell-off, partly due to hopes of a more co-ordinated central bank response to financial market losses. Sterling also rose and Wall Street opened higher as investors hunted for bargains.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said central banks around the world should aim to align monetary policies to mitigate "destabilizing spillovers" between economies.

Shares in European banks have come under particular pressure, especially those based in Britain, over doubts about future market access, and Italy, with high levels of bad loans.

Brexit creates huge political uncertainty and will put pressure on global growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s Deputy Managing Director Zhu Min said on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin in northern China.

Asian stocks rose and Chinese stocks, protected by capital controls, hit a three-week closing high. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang sought to reassure investors by saying the country would not allow "roller-coaster" rides in capital markets.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said England had collapsed "politically, monetarily, constitutionally and economically".

US President Barack Obama told National Public Radio there had been some hysteria "as if somehow NATO's gone, the trans-Atlantic alliance is dissolving, and every country is rushing off to its own corner. That's not what's happening."

In view of the disarray in Britain, some people questioned whether Brexit would happen at all. Nordea bank analysts gave it a likelihood of 70 percent and a senior EU official involved in the process said he thought the country may find a way never to announce its formal departure to the bloc. (Additional reporting by Alastair Macdonald, Paul Taylor, Gabriela Baczynska, Phil Blenkinsop and Jan-Robert Bartunek in Brussels; Sudip Kar-Gupta and Guy Faulconbridge in London and Alistair Scrutton in Stockholm)

source: interaksyon.com

ANALYSIS | Can the EU survive Brexit?

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Britain's vote to become the first country to leave the EU, as projected by national media, is a shattering blow that threatens the survival of the post-war European project, officials and analysts said.

The loss of one of its biggest members will at the very least force major changes on an embattled bloc already struggling to deal with growing populism, a migration crisis and economic woes.

In the long-run, "Brexit" may lead to other countries holding referendums, a far looser union, and possibly even the disintegration of a grouping set up 60 years ago to bring security and prosperity after World War II.

EU President Donald Tusk warned in the run-up to the vote that Brexit could lead to the "destruction of not only the EU but also of Western political civilization."

With Europe facing a resurgent Russia and the threat of terrorism, Tusk said "our enemies ... will open a bottle of champagne if the result of referendum is negative for us."

In a less doom-laden assessment, European Commission Chief Jean-Claude Juncker said last week that the EU was not "in danger of death" from a Brexit but that it would have to learn lessons.

'Very serious blow'

Chris Bickerton, a lecturer at Britain's Cambridge University and author of "The European Union: A Citizen's Guide," said it was a "very serious blow" but not terminal, given the "core role" of the EU in much of European political life.

But he added that it would probably drift towards a "looser, ad hoc" union.

"I don't think it would suddenly disappear but over the longer term, we might see it slowly decline and become something different," he told AFP.

The next steps for the EU would be difficult, he added.

"We are very much in uncharted territory," he said. "I don't think anyone really thought Brexit was really likely, certainly not when they were negotiating with Cameron, otherwise they would have done a very different deal."

In the immediate aftermath of the British vote, seven years of potentially bitter divorce negotiations between Brussels and London loom.

The remaining EU countries will likely be keen to move ahead. France and Germany, the main EU heavyweights, have already been working on a joint plan for the future.

But with Berlin and Paris at loggerheads over future integration of the eurozone, any plan is likely to be a modest affair that deals only with issues such as security and defense.

Even without Britain in the club, the drift away from "ever closer union" and federalism is likely to increase, with growing talk of a "two-speed Europe" that allows states opt-outs from key rules.

One major step could be making membership of the euro non-compulsory, which would help Poland, which appears to have no intention of joining the single currency but is officially meant to.

Domino effect?
The main fear in many European capitals is that either way, the result could trigger a domino effect of referendums in other countries.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen on Tuesday urged all EU states to follow Britain's example, and eurosxeptics in the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden have made similar calls for referendums.

Vivien Pertusot, Brussels-based analyst with the French Institute of International Relations, said the EU was likely to survive but be weakened.

"Institutions rarely die," he told AFP. "Maybe there will not be disintegration, but a loss of relevance. The EU will lose, bit by bit, its centrality for all the most political projects."

The danger for the EU is that even after it makes changes following the British referendum, it will still not be able to quell the forces of history tearing it apart.

"The EU is in a negative spiral," Janis Emmanouilidis, director of studies at Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre, told AFP.

The question of what could replace the EU if it does collapse is even more vexed.

"It might sound as if yes, this story has ended, a new one has begun, but that's not easy. Especially after the experience of failure," said Emmanouilidis.

source: interaksyon.com