Showing posts with label Dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dollar. Show all posts
Thursday, February 20, 2014
How US supplanted WWI-ravaged Europe as economic center
PARIS - The dollar's supremacy and the United States' global economic dominance were built on the ruins of a Europe devastated by World War I, which dramatically ended a virtual stranglehold on world power that had lasted four centuries.
The US had been the main industrial power since the end of the 19th Century -- in 1913 its per-capita GDP was nearly 30 percent higher than that of Europe's richest country, Britain.
But thanks to American isolationism Europe remained the world's banker, with all the political power that went with that position.
On the eve of war, the combined foreign investments of Britain, France, and Germany were worth 10 times those of the US, according to French historian Antoine Prost.
Within just five years, the situation had been completely reversed. Europe's coffers had been bled dry by a conflict whose long duration it had not foreseen, and which had cost 50 times more than experts had predicted in 1914.
In ruining Europe, the conflict had "gone some way toward redefining the hierarchy of global economic powers -- with the US at the top -- along lines that remain largely unchanged today," said economic historian Olivier Feiertag.
French historian and economist Alain Plessis estimates the direct cost of the war for the six main belligerents at between 150 and 170 billion dollars, or between three and four times their GDP.
In addition, Europeans had to deal with the massive cost of reconstruction, of pensions for millions of war wounded, widows and orphans, and for industrial reconversion.
The war had also cost the European powers the bulk of their gold reserves. Much of this was lost to the US, which doubled its stock of the precious metal between 1913 and 1919.
When war broke out, it held 40 percent of world gold reserves; by 1923, that figure had swelled to 50 percent.
"There can be scarcely any doubt that World War I, by changing the division of metal reserves in a durable way, is the starting point for the international supremacy of the American currency that marked the whole of the 20th Century," said Feiertag.
Debt-based global economy
This new supremacy was reinforced by the fact that by the end of the war the US was the world's biggest lender, having supplanted its European allies who had borrowed more than 10 billion dollars to finance the conflict.
"Between 1914 and 1919 Europe went from net creditor to the rest of the world to the biggest debtor," said Feiertag.
Debt -- both foreign and domestic -- would in turn weigh down Europe's major economies. In 1931, 52 percent of the French state's budget went on servicing public debt taken on during and after the war and paying war pensions.
This, combined with a major increase in public spending, fed into inflation rates unheard of before the war.
Prices had doubled in France and Britain and quadrupled in Germany and Austria-Hungary during the war.
After it ended, they went sky-high, permanently weakening Europe's currencies -- with the notable exception of sterling.
Britain had invested heavily in North America before the war. Spared any direct action on its soil, it did not have reconstruction costs, and it had relied more than its neighbors on taxes to fund the fighting.
It therefore came out of the war in better financial shape than other nations in Europe. Even victorious France had lost the bulk of its foreign capital -- held in central Europe and Russia -- and had to deal with destruction on a massive scale.
The French franc was to lose two-thirds of its value between 1919 and 1928, while the German mark collapsed in a bout of hyperinflation that plunged the economy into crisis in 1922 and 1923.
Economic and monetary chaos proved just as lasting in most of the countries that succeeded Europe's defeated empires -- among them Bolshevik Russia, Hungary, Austria, Czechoslovakia, and Finland.
The conflict also laid the foundations for a debt-based global economy that persists to this day, according to Feiertag.
For the US, the war "marked its arrival on a global stage that not only would it not leave, but that it would come to lead," ending centuries of European dominance, said French historian Jean-Jacques Becker.
source: interaksyon.com
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Private sector takes out more dollar loans in 3Q
MANILA – Foreign currency deposit units (FCDU) of banks issued more loans in the third quarter, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
In a statement, BSP Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said FCDU loans grew by 2.6 percent to $10 billion at end-September from $9.7 billion at end-June.
Sixty-three percent of those loans are medium- to long-term, or those maturing in more than a year, with the remaining 36 percent pertaining to short-term credit.
Eighty-one percent of the loans was taken out by the private sector.
The major beneficiaries were public utilities at 21.3 percent; merchandise and service exporters, 15.4 percent; and producers or manufacturers, including oil companies, 14.7 percent.
Gross disbursements during the third quarter increased to $11.6 billion from the previous quarter’s $8.1 billion. The bulk of loan releases had short-term maturities, 74.3 percent of which was for working capital requirements.
FCDU deposit liabilities increased by two percent to reach $26.2 billion at end-September from $25.6 billion at end-June. The loans to deposit ratio slightly improved to 38.1 percent from 37.9 percent in the second quarter.
Ninety-eight percent of the deposits were held by residents.
source: interaksyon.com
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
US sells lucky 'Year of the Horse' greenbacks for Chinese market
WASHINGTON DC - The US Treasury is selling red "hong bao" envelopes with "lucky" dollars bearing auspicious serial numbers to mark the Chinese Year of the Horse next year.
Exactly 88,888 of the dollar notes go on sale Wednesday, each stuck in a red envelope blazoned with New Year's greetings and horse pictures.
The serial number on each note begins with 8888, which pronounced in Chinese sounds like the word for "prosper" and is considered by many to be especially lucky.
Chinese often give and receive gifts of money in red envelopes -- hong bao -- to mark the new year, which falls on January 31 in 2014.
The Treasury is selling each note, with envelope, for $5.95, though the prices falls to $4.50 for 50 or more, and $3.95 apiece for 1,000 or more.
Cheng Wang, a retired official of the Treasury's Bureau of Engraving and Printing, said the annual lucky banknote issue is a hit, especially in years represented by the most propitious animal symbols of the Chinese zodiac.
"The Year of the Dragon (2102), it was sold out in one week. That's how hot it was," he said.
"The Year of the Horse is good too. You reach a goal with a horse."
source: interaksyon.com
Friday, November 1, 2013
Asian shares sag, dollar rises on upbeat U.S. data
TOKYO - Asian shares sagged on Friday though upbeat signals on China's manufacturing activity limited losses, while the dollar pushed higher after upbeat U.S. data led some investors to price-in a less dovish stance at the U.S. Federal Reserve.
China's manufacturing sector grew at the fastest in 18 months in October, with the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 51.4 last month from September's 51.1, beating economists' consensus forecast of 51.2.
The final HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 50.9, up from 50.2 in September and unchanged from a preliminary flash estimate released last week.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell about 0.2 percent, while Australian shares .AXJO gave up 0.2 percent, but still remained just shy of five-year highs. Japan's Nikkei stock average erased early gains and dropped 0.6 percent.
U.S. S&P E-mini futures edged up 0.1 percent, after the S&P 500 Index closed down about 0.4 percent but still gained 4.5 percent for the month.
Later on Friday, the U.S. ISM survey of manufacturing for October could offer investors a fresh signal on the Fed's future course.
"If the ISM report is better than expected, it could add to revived tapering expectations, and U.S. yields and the dollar could go up and stocks could go down," said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.
Data on Thursday showed the pace of business activity in the U.S. Midwest jumped more than expected in October, soothing some worries about sluggish fourth-quarter growth after last month's federal government shutdown.
A decline in new jobless claims in the latest week also added to evidence that the economy weathered the shutdown. New claims fell by 10,000 to 340,000, just above the average estimate of 339,000.
Still, not all investors or economists were convinced that the latest U.S. data heralded a shift in monetary policy expectations.
"The existence of noise in the October data will likely make it difficult for the Fed to gather enough evidence to start tapering in December," strategists at Barclays wrote in a note to clients, adding that they still to expect the central bank to begin reducing its current $85 billion monthly bond purchases in March 2014.
Pressure on euro
The euro remained under pressure after plunging in the previous session as euro-zone inflation dropped to its lowest rate in nearly four years, heightening expectations that the European Central Bank will further ease its monetary policy.
The euro dropped about 0.3 percent to $1.3545, moving away from a two-year peak of $1.3833 set one week ago. On Thursday, it suffered its biggest one-day fall against the greenback in six months, tumbling 1.1 percent.
Data on Thursday showed euro-area inflation slowed to a four-year low of 0.7 percent last month, far below the ECB's target of just under 2 percent. Other data showed unemployment held at record highs in September.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was on track for a sixth session of gains, rising 0.3 percent to 80.398 after touching a two-week peak of 80.418 and pulling further away from a nine-month trough of 78.998 hit one week ago.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was about 0.2 percent lower on the day at 98.18 yen.
In commodities trading, gold steadied but was still trading close its lowest in nearly two weeks, hurt by sharp losses in the previous session from month-end profit-taking, the strong U.S. economic data and the higher dollar. Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,326.53 an ounce, after sliding 1.4 percent on Thursday.
source: interaksyon.com
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Asian shares cheer as deal to avert U.S. default reached
SYDNEY - Share markets from Australia to Japan staged a relief rally on Thursday after legislators produced a last-minute deal to lift the U.S. government's borrowing limit and dodge a potentially catastrophic debt default.
The agreement, crafted by U.S. Senate leaders, has been approved by Congress, leaving President Barack Obama to sign the bill into law. Obama has vowed to do so promptly and begin reopening the government "immediately.
It came just hours ahead of an October 17 deadline when the Treasury Department said it would have exhausted its borrowing authority.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a fresh five-month high and was last up 0.4 percent. Tokyo's Nikkei advanced 1.2 percent to its highest in three weeks.
But in what appeared to be a buy-on-the-rumor/sell-on-the-fact move, U.S. stock index futures actually dipped on the news, having already rallied 1.3 percent overnight on hopes that a breakthrough was imminent.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a currency basket, also slipped a touch to 80.381, pulling back from a one-month high of 80.745.
The deal, however, does not resolve the fundamental issues of spending and deficits that divide Republicans and Democrats. It funds the government until January 15 and raises the debt limit through to February 7, so global markets face the possibility of another showdown in Washington early next year.
"The can has been kicked further down the road...the reset button has been pushed and we will go thought this all again in two months time," said Evan Lucas, market strategist at IG in Melbourne.
But Lucas expected "normal trading" to return over the coming days as the earnings season gets underway.
Still, the resolution couldn't have come at a better time for companies such as South Korean train maker Hyundai Rotem, which recently launched an initial public offering in what could be the country's biggest share sale so far this year.
Crisis over?
In the currency market, the improved risk appetite saw investors favor high-yielding currencies including the Australian dollar.
The Aussie dollar hit a 4-month high of $0.9574 and scaled a 4-1/2 month peak of 94.48 yen. It has since stepped back a notch to $0.9534 and 94.01 yen.
Against the yen, the U.S. dollar briefly reached a three-week high of 99.01, before strong selling interest knocked it back to 98.64. The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.3549.
Among commodities, copper slipped 0.5 percent to $7,227 a tonne (1 tonne = 1.12 metric tons), while gold traded at $1,280 an ounce -- struggling to gain momentum in the absence of safety bids. U.S. crude dithered at $102 a barrel.
Many traders are already trying to get past the fiscal drama and looking to see when a backlog of U.S. economic data, including the September payrolls, will be released when the partial government shutdown is lifted.
With the maneuvering in Washington just about over, investors will re-focus on economic news and the timeline for the U.S. Federal Reserve's tapering of its bond-buying program -- a major driver of global assets in recent months.
The Fed stunned markets last month by opting to delay the start of stimulus reduction.
"It will be some time before we are able to get a clear read on the U.S. labor market post-shutdown," said Westpac economist Elliot Clarke.
"But a logical expectation given recent events and the lack of a long-term solution is that we will see soft employment growth through the remainder of 2013 and into 2014."
That, Clarke said, is likely to see the Fed maintain a dovish tilt, adding the U.S. central bank will very likely have to downgrade its 2013 and 2014 growth forecasts given the impact of the U.S. government shutdown.
source: interaksyon.com
Friday, October 4, 2013
Dog eats money, US Treasury pays owner
A Montana man who pieced together the remnants of five $100 bills eaten by his one-eyed dog last year is sporting a $500 check he says he received this week from the US Department of the Treasury to replace the digested funds.
Wayne Klinkel said his dog Sundance, a golden retriever, sniffed the wad of bills out of a car cubby space while waiting for Klinkel and his wife to return from lunch, and the canine made the currency his lunch.
Klinkel, a graphic designer from Helena, Montana, who works for the local newspaper, the Independent Record, said he found Sundance had left nothing uneaten but one intact dollar bill and a small piece of a single $100 note.
"He's been notorious for eating paper products," Klinkel said about Sundance. "I knew right away what had happened."
Klinkel rescued Sundance as a puppy from a shelter 12 years ago and the dog later lost his left eye to surgery.
For days after the December incident, Klinkel followed Sundance around in the snow, collecting his droppings in a plastic bag, he said.
Klinkel kept the bag of doggy mess frozen in the cold outside his house, and after weeks of hesitation, he went forward with his plan for retrieving the soiled cash by thawing the droppings in a bucket of soapy water.
Using an old metal mining screen and a hose, he separated the $100 bill pieces from the rest of the matter, then washed and began to assemble the tiny paper fragments.
"It was sort of like putting the puzzle pieces back together," Klinkel said.
He then took the taped bills to a local bank and the Federal Reserve in Helena but was turned away, he said. Klinkel was eventually directed to the US Department of Treasury's Mutilated Currency Division, where he mailed the digested bills with a notarized letter on April 15.
"There was no guarantee I was going to get anything back," Klinkel said.
The Treasury Department offers reimbursement for some proven cases of damaged currency, and a standard claim can take up to two years to be processed, according to the department's website.
"When mutilated currency is submitted, a letter should be included stating the estimated value of the currency and an explanation of how the currency became mutilated," the website says.
Klinkel said he didn't hear a word from the department until Monday, when he received a crisp $500 check in the mail from the Mutilated Currency Division to replace Sundance's midday snack six months prior.
The Independent Record, the paper that employs Klinkel, has posted a picture on its website of Sundance with the check dangling from its mouth.
An operator with the US Department of Treasury on Thursday said department representatives were furloughed and unavailable for comment on Klinkel's reimbursement.
source: interaksyon.com
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Philippines' forex surplus up a third at end-May
MANILA - The Philippines' balance of payments (BOP) surplus in the first five months of the year went up by more than a third from a year ago, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said on Wednesday.
Data from the BSP showed that the country's foreign-exchange surplus at end-May went up by 44.7 percent to $1.809 billion from $1.302 billion last year.
In May however, the surplus of $75 million was $63 million lower than last year's $138 million.
The BOP summarizes the country's economic transactions with the rest of the world. A surplus means the country earned more dollars than it paid for overseas transactions.
The BSP earlier reported that the country suffered net outflows of $641 million worth of foreign portfolio investments in May, a reversal of the net inflows of $1.1 billion in April and $106 million in May of last year.
The BSP forecast the country's external payments position to moderate to $3 billion by yearend on expectations of a 12 percent year-on-year increase in imports.
Sustained BOP surpluses help build up the country's gross international reserves (GIR), an ample supply of which helps prop up the peso and keeps domestic inflation at bay.
The country's dollar reserves slipped to $82.9 billion last month from $83.2 billion in April because of the drop in the price of gold in the international market, as well as payment of the country's foreign-currency debts.
source: interaksyon.com
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