Asian stocks set for worst monthly drop in three years on global rout

HONG KONG - Asian shares fell on Monday and looked set for their worst monthly performance in three years after top Federal Reserve officials kept the door open for an interest rate hike in September and Chinese stock markets took a fresh tumble.

Global markets are bracing for Chinese data on Tuesday which is expected to show the world's second-largest economy is continuing to lose momentum.

A Reuters poll showed China's official factory sector activity likely fell to a 3-year low.

U.S. business surveys, factory orders, trade data and non farm payrolls will also be released this week, keeping investors on edge after one of the wildest trading weeks of the year.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.8 percent and is set to fall 10 percent this month, its worst monthly drop since May 2012.

Japan's Nikkei was down more than 1 percent and South Korea's Kospi shed 0.6 percent. Australian shares lost 1.2 percent.

Selling intensified as China markets extended declines. By midmorning, Shanghai stocks, the epicenter of this month's whip-saw action, were down 3 percent. They have plunged more than 40 percent since mid-June.

U.S. stock futures shed 1 percent, pointing to weakness on Wall Street later in the day.

"Overall sentiment towards emerging markets continue to be quite cautious," said Frances Cheung, Asia strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.

"Unless we see a decisive trend forward in the trajectory of U.S. interest rates, investors will continue to be wary of emerging market assets."

U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, speaking at the central bank's conference in Wyoming, said recent volatility in global markets could ease and possibly pave the way for a rate hike.

"The release of U.S. ADP employment on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday will be key in analyzing the quantum of a September rate hike," Angus Nicholson, market analyst at trading services provider IG in Melbourne, wrote in a note to clients.

Prospects of higher interest rates and returns in the United States combined with China's slowdown have diminished the appeal of emerging markets as investors have dumped riskier assets.

Investors sold $5.9 billion of emerging market assets between Aug 20-26, a sharp increase from $1.5 billion the week earlier, according to Nomura fund flows data.

Credit markets, often a harbinger of things to come for equities, spelt further pain in store for emerging markets.

An index for Asian high-yield credit has fallen sharply compared to a relatively steady performance in the investment grade index, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The dollar eased 0.4 percent to 121.15 yen after rising to the week's high of 121.76 on Friday following the Fed officials' comments that kept prospects of a September hike alive.

The euro was up 0.5 percent at $1.12405  after touching an eight-day low of $1.1156 on Friday.

The market will watch Thursday's policy meeting to see if the European Central Bank will be inclined to ease monetary policy further in the wake of the recent global markets turmoil, though no imminent change is expected.

U.S. crude oil prices dipped early on Monday as their biggest two-day surge in quarter of a century ran its course.

U.S. crude was down 0.8 percent at $44.86 a barrel after jumping more than 6 percent on Friday on frenetic short-covering fueled by violence in Yemen, a storm in the Gulf of Mexico and refinery outages.

The contract was still down nearly 5 percent on the month, when it hit a 6-1/2-year low last week in the wake of China-led global growth fears.

source: interaksyon.com

Asian stocks on defensive on weak China data, Fed rate view

TOKYO - Asian shares were on the defensive on Monday after new indications of a slowdown in the Chinese economy strained the nerves of markets already unsettled by the prospect of a U.S. interest rate hike in September.

Japan's Nikkei fell 0.4 percent and South Korean shares dropped 0.3 percent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan stood near its 1 1/2-year low hit last month and stood flat.

"The markets are beginning to price in structurally lower growth in China and an end to the so-called commodity super-cycle," said Yoshinori Shigemi, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than economists' forecast of a 1.0 percent fall, data showed on Saturday.

Producer price deflation deepened to 5.4 percent, sending wholesale prices to their lowest since late 2009.

The data came as many emerging currencies came under pressure from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will end nearly a decade of its zero interest rates.

The U.S. Department of Labor said on Friday employers added 215,000 jobs in July, only slightly below a Reuters poll of 223,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held at a seven-year low of 5.3 percent and there were signs that wages were beginning to pick up.

Taken together, the figures promoted traders to ratchet up expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates in September, even though money market futures pricing suggest it remained a close call.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.3 percent, hitting a six-month low. The S&P 500 shed also about 0.3 percent.

Emerging market shares were beaten harder, with MSCI's emerging market index falling to a two-year low on Friday.

The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates has made the dollar more attractive to investors in the past year, which in turn has lowered demand for commodities and crimped U.S. corporate earnings from exports.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of euro, yen and four other currencies, reached 98.334, its highest since late April after the U.S. job data, before turning lower. On Monday, it stood at 97.670.

The euro traded at $1.0957 while the yen was 124.35 to the dollar.

Oil prices kept sliding on the global slowdown, a U.S. gasoline glut and a rise in the U.S. oil rig count.

Crude futures prices fell to fresh multi-month lows early on Monday. Brent fell to $48.26 per barrel, not far from a six-year low of $45.19 hit in January.

source: interaksyon.com

Asian shares erase gains, China factory weighs

TOKYO - An index of Asian shares erased its early gains on Tuesday after a measure of Chinese factory activity unexpectedly skidded to an 11-month low.

The flash HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 49.2 in March, below the 50-point level. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 50.6, slightly weaker than February's final PMI of 50.7.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down about 0.1 percent.

The private survey signaled persistent weakness in the world's second-largest economy that is likely to add to calls for more policy easing from Beijing.

"A renewed fall in total new business contributed to a weaker expansion of output, while companies continued to trim their workforce numbers," Annabel Fiddes, an economist at Markit said.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which has recently pushed to seven-year highs, sagged 0.3 percent in early trading. Japan's Nikkei stock average slipped about 0.5 percent, pulling away from the previous session's 15-year highs.

The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher on the day, but still remained well off its recent highs as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve will stay its hand on hiking interest rates in the months ahead.

Underscoring that the long-term view remains intact but the near-term is unclear, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, the central bank's second-in-command, said on Monday that the Federal Reserve is "widely expected" to begin raising interest rates this year though the policy path remains uncertain.

Fischer said the stronger dollar and weaker oil prices figure in U.S. policymaking, but said the central bank is "trying to look through those phenomena."

The dollar plunged last week after the Fed cut its inflation outlook and its growth forecast. The market consensus is that the Fed will hold off raising rates until at least September, rendering short-term directional bets difficult to make.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, edged up about 0.2 percent to 97.179 .DXY, but remained below its 12-year peak of 100.390 struck on March 13.

The dollar was up 0.1 percent on the day against its Japanese counterpart at 119.80 yen, but remained well below Friday's session high of 121.20 and levels above 122 yen touched earlier this month.

The euro stood at $1.0923, down about 0.2 percent from the previous session but still well above a 12-year nadir of $1.0457 plumbed last week before the Fed's statement.

The euro got a lift against the dollar on Monday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he expected consumer prices to rise gradually by the end of the year even if they might remain very low or negative in the months ahead.

Some market participants took this as a sign that the ECB might wrap up its bond-buying scheme early, though Draghi said it intended to carry out purchases at least until end-September.

The weaker dollar lent support to dollar-denominated commodities, though some investors took profits on recent rallies. U.S. crude futures edged down about 0.4 percent to $47.28 a barrel after soaring 1.9 percent in the previous session.

Spot gold edged down about 0.2 percent after a four-day rally, to $1,187.10 an ounce.

source: interaksyon.com