(CNN) -- A long and bitter presidential election comes to a close on Tuesday when Americans will choose between a second term for President Barack Obama and a new direction with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
CNN's reporters,
correspondents, analysts and anchors tell what they'll be watching for
that might tip off how the election will go:
Bash: Unexpected GOP struggles in Senate
The neck-and-neck
presidential race might be dominating headlines, but there are a lot of
rich dramas playing out across the country in the battle for control of the Senate.
Heading into Election Day, there are nearly a dozen true tossup races that could go either way.
Republicans hold 47
seats. To retake control of the Senate, the GOP needs a net gain of
four. With 23 Democratic seats up for grabs in a terrible economy, it
seemed like a no-brainer that Republicans would be able to flip four.
But it's now a struggle for the GOP.
The central reason is
that they are defending several unexpected races on their own turf.
Indiana's Senate race is now going to be one of the evening's early
bellwethers to determine the balance of power in the Senate. GOP
candidate Richard Mourdock's poll numbers plummeted in this red state
after he awkwardly stated a few weeks ago that pregnancy from rape is a gift from God.
Polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and if Democrat Joe Donnelly wins, it will
set Republicans back -- especially since the GOP already expects to lose
the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe in Maine. The state's popular former governor, independent candidate Angus King, is on track to win there.
Here are three other nail-biters I'll be watching:
Virginia:
With more than $80 million spent so far, it's the most expensive Senate
race in the country. Former GOP Sen. George Allen is trying to get his
seat back after a narrow defeat six years ago. The man who beat him, Jim
Webb, is retiring and former governor and DNC chairman Tim Kaine hopes
to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
Montana:
Neither Republicans nor Democrats will even privately predict which way
this will go. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester is trying to hold on for a
second term in this red state. GOP challenger Rep. Denny Rehberg started
out the race about 1% ahead in the polls. Now, $50 million later,
they're in the exact same place -- a 1% differential between them.
Massachusetts:
Going into Election Day, Republicans strategists were pessimistic about
holding onto this red seat in the traditionally blue state. GOP Sen.
Scott Brown had fallen behind his well-funded Democratic challenger,
Elizabeth Warren -- a liberal icon who served as the president's former
consumer advocate.
Brown's win in the race to fill the late Ted Kennedy's seat stunned the political world,
and he insists he'll surprise everyone again. But the president is
expected to take Massachusetts by double digits -- and with him at the
top of the ticket, it may be hard for Brown to beat back a Warren win.
Borger: How will the white vs. nonwhite vote split
One important indicator I will be looking at Election Night is the question of ethnicity
-- and how the white vs. the nonwhite population splits. In the 2008
election, 74% of the electorate was white. The percentage of white vote
has declined recently because of the growth in the Hispanic and voting
African-American population.
Given the ongoing
Republican trouble with Hispanic voters and the assumption that
African-Americans will, once again, vote overwhelmingly for the
president, Mitt Romney needs a strong white turnout to help propel him
to victory.
In an analysis by
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the question of the white/nonwhite
divide is called the most "critical" of the election. His analysis shows
that if the white percentage of the electorate drops to 72%, Obama will
probably win the election.
One key to watch is how the white vote itself splits between Obama and Romney.
In the latest CNN/ORC
International national poll taken from Friday to Sunday, Obama received
40% of the white vote while Romney got 57%. In 2008, Obama received 43%
of the white vote, which means he is polling less than that currently.
Crowley: Virginia suburbs and I-4 corridor
The first thing I'll watch is the exit polls to see who's voting and where -- in particular, heavy Latino turnout in Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Florida could indicate Obama wins those states.
Then, it's Virginia, Florida and Ohio.
I'll watch the Virginia suburbs of Washington,
particularly the female vote. Romney won't win here, but he has to hold
down Obama's numbers while running up his own score in the rural area.
Romney has to win Virginia.
Florida is all about the Interstate 4 corridor. North of it votes Republican; south of it votes Democratic. The I-4 corridor decides.
Everyone will tell you
to watch Lake, Stark and Hamilton counties in Ohio. There are good
reasons to watch all of them, reasons no doubt delineated by my
colleagues. But for me, it's all about Ottawa County, which has
correctly picked the presidential winner in Ohio since 1944. That's a
better record than pollsters. I'll watch Ottawa.
Hamby: How goes Pasco?
Polls begin to close in
Florida at 7 p.m. ET, and a handful of counties will report their
absentee and early vote tallies immediately.
Once that happens,
political pros in Florida will be anxiously refreshing election board
websites in a handful of those counties -- Pinellas, Duval, Orange -- in
search of early clues about which way the state is trending.
One of them is Pasco
County, outside of Tampa. Officials there are diligent about posting
returns as fast as possible. The county has a slight Republican tilt,
but Obama won the early and absentee vote there in 2008 despite losing
the county on Election Night. For Democrats, it was a promising sign
that Obama was well on his way to being competitive statewide, even in
GOP-leaning areas.
In 2004, George W. Bush
beat John Kerry in the Pasco early/absentee vote by 8 points. Bush ended
up winning the county by 10 points. In a shift four years later, Obama
beat John McCain by 5 points in the early absentee vote. He ultimately
lost the county -- but only by 3.5 points, thanks to the votes the
campaign banked early.
If Obama is losing Pasco
by more than that Bush/Kerry margin by the time the first returns are
posted, it could be a tough night for Obama in Florida.
"If you are looking for
good news for Romney out of Pasco, if they have a 10- to 12-point lead
in the absentee and early vote, that probably portends that they are
going to have a really good night in suburban counties," said one top
Florida Democrat.
King: The suburban vote and who votes in the swing states
A narrow and then a more global point:
-- Watch the vote in the suburbs around Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio, and in northern Virginia.
These are two early-closing states; if Romney is holding his own in the
suburbs, we have a competitive night. If not, it could be effectively
over before we get to the Central Time zone.
-- Who votes determines
who wins: The composition of the electorate in the swing states is the
first and best clue. Does the electorate look like 2008?
If so, then Obama is
likely on a path to victory. But if the percentage of African-American,
Latino and younger voters is down just a bit -- and the electorate
looks, say, more like the 2004 presidential election -- then Romney has a
shot.
Preston: What happens afterward?
It goes without saying
that we are all looking at turnout in the key battleground states -- can
Romney and Obama get their respective bases to show up at the polls and
at the same time, convincing the independent voters to vote for them
today?
What is piquing my
interest is not only what happens in the next few hours but what will be
the political climate for the next president-elect. Washington is already polarized and there are great challenges facing Congress before the end of the year.
Whoever wins the
presidency and the parties that control the House and the Senate need to
put the bitterness of this election behind them and work together.
The big question: Can they do that?
Steinhauser: Can Romney broaden the electoral map?
This election will be won or lost in the battleground states. Or will it?
Mitt Romney's
presidential campaign is making a last-minute push in two states that
should be safe for Obama: Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Romney campaigned in
Pennsylvania on Sunday and returns on Election Day. Republican running
mate Rep. Paul Ryan campaigned in Pennsylvania Saturday and in Minnesota
on Sunday, and the campaign's up with ads in both states.
Is this a head fake by
the Romney campaign, or do they see the tightening public opinion polls
in both states as evidence they might be able to turn Pennsylvania and
Minnesota from blue to red?
The Romney campaign says it's playing offense.
The Obama campaign says the move is a sign of desperation by the Romney
campaign. We'll find out who's right on Election Night.
source: CNN
